Syrian Faction Expansion Raises Concerns Among Neighboring Countries

Syria is witnessing its most significant shift in power since 2011, as fighters from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), supported by other armed groups, advance rapidly from Aleppo toward Damascus.

Their recent gains through Hama and possibly Homs threaten to upend the balance of power, which has remained stable since 2020.

These advances could bring major changes within Syria, as the factions aim to overthrow the government. But the impact extends beyond Syria's borders.

Neighboring countries are growing uneasy about the march toward Damascus — except for Türkiye, which has long backed Syrian opposition groups and sees the gains as an opportunity to further its own interests in Syria.

How will these developments affect Syria’s neighbors?

Türkiye has distanced itself from the HTS offensive on Aleppo, blaming the Assad government for failing to negotiate with the opposition.

While Ankara denies direct involvement, critics argue it could have stopped HTS, as the group has operated under Türkiye’s military protection in northwest Syria since 2020.

HTS has since rebuilt its forces, dominated rival factions, and rebranded itself as a local Syrian group, cutting ties with al-Qaeda. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, has sought to soften his image, visiting minority areas in Idlib and promising not to use his territories for external attacks.

Golani has also sidelined hardliners and brought foreign fighters, including Uyghurs and Chechens, under his control.

HTS has targeted ISIS cells in Idlib, but attacks persist, including one that killed ex-HTS commander Abu Maria al-Qahtani, who had fallen out with Golani over his stance on dissolving al-Qaeda.

While HTS consolidates power, questions remain about Türkiye’s role and the broader impact on Syria’s conflict.

Iraq is closely watching the situation in Syria, torn between past fears of Syrian factions and the need to build new relationships as these groups send reassurances to Baghdad.

Iraqi Shiite factions, once key in supporting President Bashar al-Assad, have used Syria’s Deir Ezzor province as a base for Iran’s supply route to Hezbollah. Now, these groups seem unable to intervene as they did before.

Some factions may want to aid Assad militarily, but US opposition complicates their plans. Recent American airstrikes targeted Iraqi groups allegedly heading from eastern Syria to assist Assad’s forces, signaling Washington’s resistance to their involvement.

Iraq now faces the challenge of balancing its concerns with future cooperation.

Moreover, Lebanon is deeply affected by Syria’s conflict.

During the war, its eastern border saw battles with ISIS and al-Nusra Front fighters, who were expelled in the 2017 “Battle of Arsal.”

Hezbollah also played a key role, sending forces to support Assad and helping prevent his government’s collapse before Russia’s intervention in 2015.

Now, Hezbollah faces mounting challenges. Recent Israeli airstrikes have targeted its leaders, fighters, and weapons in Lebanon and Syria, including its key base in Qusayr, Homs.

After reports of Hezbollah moving fighters into Syria overnight, Israel launched strikes on border crossings, citing “weapon-smuggling routes and terrorist infrastructure.”

Hezbollah also risks retaliation from Syrian factions it fought during the war.

This tension could spill into Lebanon, where past conflicts saw armed groups supporting Assad’s opposition.

While Lebanese authorities dismantled many of these groups, Hezbollah’s weakened position and Assad’s struggles might encourage their resurgence.

Meanwhile, Jordan has avoided military involvement in Syria’s conflict but remains concerned about shifts along its northern border. Previously, its focus was on smuggling, including Captagon drugs, and the presence of Iran-backed factions.

Now, the concern is that hardline groups could replace these factions near its frontier.

Jordan has a history of fighting militant cells linked to al-Qaeda and may rely on its strong ties with southern Syrian tribes to manage risks.

Meanwhile, the al-Tanf area, hosting US and allied forces, and the nearby Rukban refugee camp add to the uncertainty along Jordan’s border.