Israel’s goal might be regime change in Iran: Experts
Israel’s military assault against Iran could continue for weeks, with the possible goal of regime change, a panel of experts hosted by the Middle East Institute said on Saturday.
Panelists included retired Gen. Joseph L. Votel, former commander of US Central Command; retired Vice Adm. Kevin Donegan, former commander of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet; and Alex Vatanka, MEI senior fellow and Iran specialist who also teaches at the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio.
Vatanka said it is too early to determine if Israel’s main goal besides crippling Iran’s nuclear program is regime change, but “we might be going in (that) direction.”
He added: “That’s certainly what I think a majority of Iranian officials think that Israel wants. The big unknown in all of this is whether the Israelis somehow can get (US President Donald) Trump to buy into it the way he bought into the initial attack on Iran.”
Israel has launched attacks against an array of Iranian targets, including its military leadership and nuclear program. Tehran has responded by launching missiles and drones at Israel.
The panelists were in agreement in their belief that the conflict would not expand to include other countries.
Iran’s leadership will define victory as being its “survival,” Vatanka said, adding that while Israel has the backing of the US and “most of Europe,” Tehran “isn’t getting any help from anyone.”
He said: “I don’t think they’re getting help from what’s left of the axis of resistance … I question what the axis of resistance members can actually do at this point.”
Its members include Hamas and Hezbollah, which have been severely weakened by Israel’s military, and the Houthis in Yemen. It included Syria until the fall of President Bashar Assad in December.
Donegan said: “I think the question is, does Iran think they’ve done enough in terms of lashing back that they can throw an olive branch to get some talks going again? I think it’s a long shot, to be honest, that they’ll come to the table in the near future.”
Iran could close the Strait of Hormuz, but “the problem with closing Hormuz is they then don’t get the economic benefit of flowing their oil out,” he added.
The end game will be defined by how far Israel intends to go with its war, the panelists said.
“The Americans are playing the good cop here. President Trump has kept the door for diplomacy open,” Vatanka said.
“The Israelis are playing the bad cop, saying, ‘If you don’t give Trump what he wants then we’ll come after you.’”
